Which States Are Swing States—and How Have They Changed?

Swing States—now that’s a headline! Swing states, also called battleground or purple states, could go either way between Democrats and Republicans in the unpredictable world of American presidential politics.

These states need a lot of attention during the campaign, and they often become the deciding factor in the Electoral College. Swing states are where the demographics, voter behavior, and policy priorities are changing, and they are at the center of every close presidential race.

But in 2025, which states are truly at stake, and what factors are driving these changes? Read on for further detail and maybe a little debate at the end of the article in the comments section.

What is a modern swing state?

I bet that American citizens already know what is called a swing state, but maybe we have foreign readers around who need a thorough explanation regarding the topic. Swing-state status comes from two things coming together: close elections and a history of voting for both parties.

According to USA Facts, swing states usually have elections where the winner is decided by only a few percentage points or where the winner changes parties from one election to the next. This dual criterion helps analysts avoid making mistakes when labeling states that are usually blue or red.

Since 1992, there hasn’t been a presidential election where a few states didn’t switch parties. In 1992, 22 states changed their votes, which was a huge change in the political landscape. Although the frequency of turnover has decreased recently, with only five or six states per cycle, it remains significant enough to keep campaigns alert.

As the election season raged on toward November 5 last year, both Trump and Harris have prioritized swing states in their campaigns, visiting and holding rallies there.

The 2024 turmoil: six states changed

Six states that voted for the Democratic candidate Joe Biden in 2020 decided to back Donald Trump by the 2024 election cycle. The GOP gained ground in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; all but Nevada had already turned blue in 2020. These six comprise the essence of today’s definition of a “six-swing” state: regions where loyalties have changed twice in a short time.

Furthermore, the 2024 elections in five states—Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—were characterized as extremely competitive because they were decided by a margin of less than three percentage points.

Close races often indicate ongoing volatility and campaign opportunity, making them more telling than simple flips.

That’s it with the facts, let’s move on to those who were the swing states last year during the election:

Arizona

Arizona was a solid Republican state until demographic changes, such as more people moving to the suburbs and more Hispanic voters, made it competitive. The Grand Canyon State had a Republican winner in every other presidential election this century, so its swing from a Trump victory in 2016 to a close Biden victory in 2020 defied a decades-long pattern.

Arizona’s status as a battleground is evidence of its shifting demographics, and this year, immigration (a contentious topic in general but particularly in 2024) is a hot topic in the border state, which has determined voters to want a change, which has put Arizona on the map of swing states.

Michigan

The Great Lakes State is no stranger to being an electoral college, but in recent decades, it has virtually always shifted to the Democratic Party. Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it is one of the three states that made up Biden’s “blue wall” in 2020. However, Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 to win each state.

According to recent polling, Michigan voters place a high value on the state’s economy, and both candidates must appeal to the state’s working class.

North Carolina

Trump only won the Tar Heel State by 1.3 percentage points in 2020, making it a clear swing state. Harris has spent a lot of time in the state since Biden made it the final stop on a post-State of the Union tour of swing states before he left the race. North Carolina could end up being the Georgia of 2024, according to Democrats. If other battlegrounds support Trump, the state might also be a key pickup for Harris.

Pennsylvania

Among the 2024 election swing states, there is Pennsylvania. In 2020, the Keystone State secured the “blue wall” and the presidency for its native son, Joe Biden. However, Biden only won by 1.2 percentage points four years ago, and Trump’s victory there in 2016 ended a run of Democratic candidates winning the state.

With 19 electoral votes, it has the most among swing states and the fifth most overall.

Nevada

Nevada’s significance in the presidential election should not be diminished by the fact that it has the fewest electoral votes of the seven swing states. Although Biden’s 2020 victory was the fourth straight for Democratic candidates in the Silver State, the margin of victory was narrower than it was for Clinton in 2016.

Despite its proximity to the southern border and the fact that about 30% of its diverse population is Hispanic, polling suggests that the state’s economy is more important to voters than immigration.

Georgia

A clear example of how swing states can vary is Georgia. The Peach State had not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992, until Biden’s significant victory there in 2020. Biden’s victory in 2020 was significantly influenced by the turnout and fervor of Black voters, and the bloc may once more prove crucial in 2024.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin, which is the final state in the alphabet of the “blue wall,” was once thought to be a consistently blue Rust Belt state until Trump managed to win there in 2016 and solidified its position as a battlefield.

Then, in 2020, Biden reversed the course of events by defeating the former president by a slim margin in the Badger State.

Why is there always a come-and-go trend with these swing states?

Some states that used to be competitive have stopped being swing states. Ohio, which used to be the gold standard, voted Republican by a wide margin in both 2020 and 2024, which solidified its change. Florida also firmly moved to the GOP side, losing its status as a battleground state.

On the other hand, states like North Carolina are still competitive even if they aren’t currently leaning one way or the other. They posted Biden-to-Trump flips for 2024 and are always brought up in talks about campaign strategy.

…psst! Are you fascinated by how swing states influence elections? A fun way to explore the strategy is through a fun game. Election Night! Game Citizenship Test Expansion Pack is a cool and nice board game to play with the entire family. The game is more fun because players can earn extra rolls or change the results of their dice rolls by answering civic trivia questions on 50 multiple-choice cards based on the citizenship test. What I like most about it is that you can get it on Amazon for only $9.

Conclusion:

The identity of swing states may continue to change as we move into 2025 and beyond. Different polls show that Texas could be a serious target for Democrats by 2032.

In 2025, the seven or eight battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and maybe New Hampshire—are the most important ones in the country. Their changing loyalties from 2020 to 2024 show that no state will always be loyal to one party.

Swing-state behavior shows how America’s political landscape is changing, whether it’s because of urban-rural divides, concerns about multiple generations, or issue-based coalitions.

How do you think these swing states will change the game in the next election tour? Will there be a majority of Democrats? Or will the Republicans rule?

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